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Heads-Up - Can Ya Dig It?

Heads-Up - Can Ya Dig It?

In evaluating where I want to go with my game while attempting to capitalize on my perceived strengths, I decided to delve a bit deeper into the heads-up matches. I want to see if they are a good bet for me. Heads-up works well for me for a couple of reasons. 1) They're relatively quick. 2) I have only one person to beat. 3) And so many Donks play the low buy-in levels. On the downside, you have to be pretty good at them since you are basically risking dollar for dollar plus giving up a rake. In the end, if you aren't taking down 6 or more out of every 10 matches, you are looking at a potentially lame investment in money and time (further reviewed below).

To that end, I ran some numbers (see below) for a personal Heads-Up Challenge of 100 $10 + $.50 matches I plan to embark on soon. If all goes well I may add the challenge to my regular monthly routine. I know SteelerJosh is in the midst of his own 50 match challenge so hopefully this can help him or anyone else reading this who might be interested.

I noted an hourly return rate in hopes to figure out where I need to be to make this worth it. If I'm a break even player I will lose due to the rake. If I can average 6 wins out of every 10 I play (thus around 60 out of 100), I'll be a net winner, but I'll be working my tail off for approximately $150 a month at less than a $5/hr rate. What's minimum wage these days? Now don't get me wrong, if I can just be an above average player and win 60 out of 100 per month on a regular basis, I'll have an $1800 profit after 1 year. But that's a whole lot of work for less than $5 an hour.

Where I would rather be is in the 65 and 70 wins per 100 range in order to creep closer to $10 an hour. This is where I need your help. Am I smoking crack in thinking I can do this? Is variance too much of a whipping boy to expect to average 60 to 70 wins per 100 matches a month on a regular basis? Will 100 matches a month be too much? I'd like to hear your thoughts on all this.

And if you're wondering how I came up with the hourly rate, I went back and looked at all the heads-up matches I've played at UltimateBet - where I plan to do this - and seemed to average 20 minutes per match. There was the occasional 10 hand match lasting just a few minutes, but there were also the 250 hand battles that lasted 40+ minutes.

Your thoughts or further questions would be greatly appreciated. And sorry about the small wacked out font. I'm having issues with Blogger this morning...

WinsLossesNetHourly Rate
0100-$1,050-$31.8233200-1050
595-$950-$28.793320100-1050
1090-$850-$25.763320200-1050
1585-$750-$22.733320300-1050
2080-$650-$19.703320400-1050
2575-$550-$16.673320500-1050
3070-$450-$13.643320600-1050
3565-$350-$10.613320700-1050
4060-$250-$7.583320800-1050
4555-$150-$4.553320900-1050
5050-$50-$1.5233201000-1050
5545$50$1.5233201100-1050
6040$150$4.5533201200-1050
6535$250$7.5833201300-1050
7030$350$10.6133201400-1050
7525$450$13.6433201500-1050
8020$550$16.6733201600-1050
8515$650$19.7033201700-1050
9010$750$22.7333201800-1050
955$850$25.7633201900-1050
1000$950$28.7933202000-1050

posted by TripJax @ 1:20 PM,

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