Heads-Up - Can Ya Dig It?
Friday, September 02, 2005
Heads-Up - Can Ya Dig It?
In evaluating where I want to go with my game while attempting to capitalize on my perceived strengths, I decided to delve a bit deeper into the heads-up matches. I want to see if they are a good bet for me. Heads-up works well for me for a couple of reasons. 1) They're relatively quick. 2) I have only one person to beat. 3) And so many Donks play the low buy-in levels. On the downside, you have to be pretty good at them since you are basically risking dollar for dollar plus giving up a rake. In the end, if you aren't taking down 6 or more out of every 10 matches, you are looking at a potentially lame investment in money and time (further reviewed below).
To that end, I ran some numbers (see below) for a personal Heads-Up Challenge of 100 $10 + $.50 matches I plan to embark on soon. If all goes well I may add the challenge to my regular monthly routine. I know SteelerJosh is in the midst of his own 50 match challenge so hopefully this can help him or anyone else reading this who might be interested.
I noted an hourly return rate in hopes to figure out where I need to be to make this worth it. If I'm a break even player I will lose due to the rake. If I can average 6 wins out of every 10 I play (thus around 60 out of 100), I'll be a net winner, but I'll be working my tail off for approximately $150 a month at less than a $5/hr rate. What's minimum wage these days? Now don't get me wrong, if I can just be an above average player and win 60 out of 100 per month on a regular basis, I'll have an $1800 profit after 1 year. But that's a whole lot of work for less than $5 an hour.
Where I would rather be is in the 65 and 70 wins per 100 range in order to creep closer to $10 an hour. This is where I need your help. Am I smoking crack in thinking I can do this? Is variance too much of a whipping boy to expect to average 60 to 70 wins per 100 matches a month on a regular basis? Will 100 matches a month be too much? I'd like to hear your thoughts on all this.
And if you're wondering how I came up with the hourly rate, I went back and looked at all the heads-up matches I've played at UltimateBet - where I plan to do this - and seemed to average 20 minutes per match. There was the occasional 10 hand match lasting just a few minutes, but there were also the 250 hand battles that lasted 40+ minutes.
Your thoughts or further questions would be greatly appreciated. And sorry about the small wacked out font. I'm having issues with Blogger this morning...
| Wins | Losses | Net | Hourly Rate | |||||
| 0 | 100 | -$1,050 | -$31.82 | 33 | 20 | 0 | -1050 | |
| 5 | 95 | -$950 | -$28.79 | 33 | 20 | 100 | -1050 | |
| 10 | 90 | -$850 | -$25.76 | 33 | 20 | 200 | -1050 | |
| 15 | 85 | -$750 | -$22.73 | 33 | 20 | 300 | -1050 | |
| 20 | 80 | -$650 | -$19.70 | 33 | 20 | 400 | -1050 | |
| 25 | 75 | -$550 | -$16.67 | 33 | 20 | 500 | -1050 | |
| 30 | 70 | -$450 | -$13.64 | 33 | 20 | 600 | -1050 | |
| 35 | 65 | -$350 | -$10.61 | 33 | 20 | 700 | -1050 | |
| 40 | 60 | -$250 | -$7.58 | 33 | 20 | 800 | -1050 | |
| 45 | 55 | -$150 | -$4.55 | 33 | 20 | 900 | -1050 | |
| 50 | 50 | -$50 | -$1.52 | 33 | 20 | 1000 | -1050 | |
| 55 | 45 | $50 | $1.52 | 33 | 20 | 1100 | -1050 | |
| 60 | 40 | $150 | $4.55 | 33 | 20 | 1200 | -1050 | |
| 65 | 35 | $250 | $7.58 | 33 | 20 | 1300 | -1050 | |
| 70 | 30 | $350 | $10.61 | 33 | 20 | 1400 | -1050 | |
| 75 | 25 | $450 | $13.64 | 33 | 20 | 1500 | -1050 | |
| 80 | 20 | $550 | $16.67 | 33 | 20 | 1600 | -1050 | |
| 85 | 15 | $650 | $19.70 | 33 | 20 | 1700 | -1050 | |
| 90 | 10 | $750 | $22.73 | 33 | 20 | 1800 | -1050 | |
| 95 | 5 | $850 | $25.76 | 33 | 20 | 1900 | -1050 | |
| 100 | 0 | $950 | $28.79 | 33 | 20 | 2000 | -1050 | |
posted by TripJax @ 1:20 PM,
0 Comments:
Post a Comment