Having It Better Than You Know
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
Well I just about sharted my pants last night. What a great game that was. Throughout the whole game I maintained a strong belief that UNC was going to pull it out, but damn Illinois made it interesting. By the time the clock struck 00:00 I was shaking cause I was so happy. Pretty crazy when sports can do that to ya...guess boys will be boys.
On the poker front, I've been thinking about something and just want to get it out...
Having It Better Than You Know
This section is about a scenario that comes up quite often in your typical poker game...an all-in bet with a small or medium pocket pair vs. 2 over cards. Now as far as I can tell, a pocket pair - heads up against overs - will always have a statistical advantage, albeit a small one. If the overs are suited the advantage is even smaller, but still there. That small advantage for the pair comes from not having to improve the hand in order to win, whereas the 2 overs will always need help in that scenario.
Now think about the number of times you've been in a similar situation - you having the 2 over cards - and someone says, "oh sorry man, but I folded one of your cards." Suddenly an even % race is not so even. As an example, a decent racing hand like A K or A Q will often see numerous outs folded when players in early position fold marginable hands like Q 6 or K 3.
This change in the typical race situation really hit home recently in some of the WPT events shown on the Travel Channel. Numerous times I recall seeing a situation where a usually even race was suddenly weighted heavily in favor of the pair due to other players unloading overs like J Q K and even A when the kicker sucked.
So why do I bring all this up. Well it seems like way too often I've been putting my game on the line with marginable situations where I will obviously need help. But more importantly my decisions have just been plain bad. No excuses...just not playing smart.
In the end, when you're running bad, that's just it, you're running bad. And when you're running good, your A J will suck out A K to put you in the chip lead. It's just the way it works. I'd just like to be on the sweet end of that deal sometime soon. That's why I'm taking the break for a while. Let all the negative vibe get the hell out of my game and start back fresh.
I want to put myself in situations where I have the statistical edge and then just let the game play out as it may. In reading JackPotJay's new article today, I found a great line from Mike Caro that I had never heard. It was something to the tune of...Poker is not about winning hands or winning money, it is about making the right decisions....Now if you really put that into perspective, if you can put yourself in a position to make the right decision as often as possible, in the long run, you will win the big hands, lose the small ones, and take home the money.
I must now start making the right decisions...stop making the stupid mistakes that don't make sense. Take the extra 5 seconds to make sure what I'm doing is right. I'm still gonna take some time off from poker and keep thinking about situations like these to help my game.
Next up I think I'll discuss my recent problem with overbetting situations where it just doesn't make sense. Damn it feels good to get all this shit out...
Laterz
posted by TripJax @ 2:16 AM,
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