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PayOuT ODDS

PayOuT ODDS

If you haven't read my earlier post from today, be sure to check it out and leave an answer in the comments.

I want to thank everyone who commented on my recent "Poker Sites Take Notice" post where I detailed my most recent tournament idea. I'm doing this because I like to think up ideas that might just be good enough to work. It's nice to get it out of my head and to have you all let me know what you think.

Before I go forward, if you haven't read the "Poker Sites Take Notice - Part 2 - Super SNG's" post, then scroll down and read it before reading further...

TraumaPoker left a comment in that post that I wanted to briefly write about. He writes:


I think this would create some odd play. If I understand correctly you are saying after the first table that is it. Once there are 3 no more playing at all the additional 30 payouts are based on chip stacks correct? So say you are 4 handed at your table and you have all started with 1K in chips.You have 5K to say 2K 2K and 1K. You are in the BB UTG pushes allin for his 1k, both 2k stacks call, you have J3o and you have to call. YOU HAVE TO CALL. A majo suck out awards you all the chips and a lock on the super SNG award. I find this kind of tournament interesting but the play once the table reached 5 players and then 4 would be very odd. You would be making plays based on the bonus, not on your hand value.

Trauma makes some good points in this comment and I appreciate his critique. His comment prompted the title of this post, which is something I don't recall ever hearing before, but I thought up after looking back on the details of my idea. To make a play that takes into account the PayOuT ODDS. This Super SNG idea could, at times, cause you to make a decision based on the potential payout rather than it being the "right" move. I think it would be similar to someone making a move in a tournament that might be on the gambooool side because they know if they take down the hand they will have a huge advantage making a run to the final table.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, I think this type of SNG/Tournament would bring out a whole new type of strategy for players. For instance, lets take a look at the scenario Trauma mentioned. I believe the 5K player still has more than one move of pushing all-in. Though it will give him the best chance to hit 10,000 in chips thus making him a lock for, at a minimum, a share of the top payout spots, it is not his only move. Let's look at what happens if Mr. 5K folds instead of calls the all-in with a poor hand...
  • If 1K Player Wins: Mr. 5K is still the chipleader, 1K now has 3K, and the other two players have 1K each. Mr. 5K has still put himself in a good position to take down the $20 award for being in the top 3 at his table. He has also given himself a chance to use his 5K to bully the 1K players, thus building his stack to a size that might just place in the top 30 for the Super SNG payout.
  • If One Of 2K Players Wins: 1K man is eliminated and Mr. 5K has guaranteed himself $20.

Now I'm not saying that either calling or folding is the absolute correct play here, but I just want to show there are options. This style tournament will require quick thinking and decisions. It will surely put some piss poor players at a disadvantage when they make incorrect moves when they are not thinking about how their play could effect their potential payout and the place at their table. But at the end of the day, you are playing a $10 SNG with a chance to make up to $1200 in about 1 hour or less. I don't know about you, but I would be willing to play that type of tournament, occasionally gambooool where the PayOuT ODDS make sense, and take down some decent money along the way.

And looking further into Trauma's scenario, even if it would be an odd play to call an all-in with J-3o, it would take many, many attempts of that play not working for it to eventually be unprofitable. You're staring at an incredible chance at a $1200 payday if you hit it and if you don't you are either still in the SNG with 4 players playing or you have automatically earned $20.

Thanks again everyone for giving your 2 cents. Keep the comments coming if you have further thoughts or replies to my notes above.

~~~~~

I've been playing my MTT SNG's with a lot of confidence lately. I've been playing the PokerStars 18 and 45 SNG's and feel like my moves have been spot on. On Wednesday I missed placing in the money on two different SNG's only due to some tough beats. That made last nights SNG (see below) all the more justified. It was the only one I played and I loved the way I played it...


PokerStars Tournament #14948626, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $6.00/$0.50
18 players
Total Prize Pool: $108.00
Tournament started - 2005/11/10 - 21:27:23 (ET)
Dear TripJax,
You finished the tournament in 1st place.
A $43.20 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

Congratulations!
Thank you for participating.


I back doored my way into the money and only had about 2K in 4th place while the other 3 players had about 13K, 8K, and 4K. At that point I made the comment, "I've got my work cut out for me." From there I took over the table and won the thing within 10 minutes. It was a small win and I shouldn't even post it, but when you're playing with confidence and not seeing results, it is small wins like this that give you the boost you need. I'm really digging the 18 and 45 player SNG's and am really looking forward to the 180 person SNG's when they open up the buy-in range to inlcude $5 and $10. Right now I'm not comfortable doing the $20 until I can build the roll up a little more.

~~~~~

I'm at a crossroads on what my next cash game promo should be. I want to take advantage of the 9000 points being offered at PSO, but I also want to try out VPP. I'm thinking I may do Absolute at PSO so I can show having signed up through PSO for the freerolls as well as get 9000 points. Then, after that one is done I'll give VPP a try so I can help out Jordan.

As for my eyes on the prize, when it comes to what I'll use the points to buy, I've decided not to worry with the iPod Nano and instead will be buying the Party Poker Gift Certificates. What I need right now is a boost to the bankroll and that will be the best way to meet my needs.

~~~~~

That's gonna have to do it for now. I had planned on this post being a little big longer, but work is spanking me right now so I'm gonna have to cut it short. I probably won't be posting again until Monday unless I have an epiphany. Will there be another US vs. UK SNG this weekend???


posted by TripJax @ 5:25 PM,

2 Comments:

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